Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.
After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.
Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.
“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.
On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.
Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”
They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.
The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”
The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.
American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.
“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.
It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.
“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.
“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.
Elena Vance is a tech strategist with over a decade of experience in digital transformation and business analytics.